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Ecommerce Spring Forecasting

March 5th, 2010

Are you feeling that “spring is coming” bug? Well, rightfully so, because right now is the time to plan for your spring marketing and tidy up a bit from the winter sales.

Most ecommerce stores have some season trending. This is very unique to both the store and the product line. So a store selling green widgets can be expected to trend sales in a similar manner to another shop selling green widgets… But not exactly, as they are many additional metrics that influence one’s sales.

So you should be planning for your spring and early summer products, marketing and trends now… So that you are prepared for this period in your business. Even especially if traditionally spring is a low volume period for sales.

Here is a checklist of sorts to help you get started for planning any marketing period, including this spring.

Trending: Unless you site is brand new, you should have some sales and traffic data that you can use to trend or predict the data for the upcoming period. I tend to concentrate on sales and traffic. I use both as they can be very unrelated for some websites. There are clearly some periods where even if the traffic is there, conversions are down… So to properly trend our potential for this upcoming period we should use both. You may even have other metrics such as, bounce, average order or similar that are specifically a target for your store.

Gathering the data is the easiest part, as you should be using a proper analytical stat program to record your data. We will use Google Anayltics for our example, as it is very popular.

When gathering your data, we are looking for specific trends within the matching period from previous years to predict, affect and produce a proper marketing plan for the upcoming period. So login to Google Analytics and lets get to work.

So we will pull data for all of March, April, May and June to cover our bases and provide some overlap. You will want to pull at least on year, more if you have them. I would not be concerned with using more than 3 years as things in your business and on the web change very quickly and it’s not likely to be very relevant any longer.

The example store I am using had a 2009 average daily visits of 279 uniques a day. There conversion rate for the year was 3.87%. You can see by the graph that holiday traffic is a crucial part of this store’s success and that spring is rather soft by comparison. You can also see that our spring period it right at or just a bit above average for them.

2009 Traffic

2009 Unique Visits

We can clearly see from this data, that traffic could be improved for this period…. Especially because they have a genuine promotable product line for spring sales. Now let’s have a look at conversions in relationship with this traffic… Do they convert well in this period?

conversions Ecommerce Spring Forecasting

2009 Conversions

We can see that last year, while traffic was average, they converted pretty well the end part of spring. looks very much like March should be our focus area.

Next you will determine your trend. You can use data from previous tears to do this… But if you lack that data no worries, this old restaurant manager has the equation to get you close.

Obviously, any data you do have is clearly relevant… But let’s say you have little or none. To determine your current rate of growth in both of these metrics we will poll the last 4 months. This is a weighted process with the greatest weight on the most recent data.

This applies to any metric. Gather the data for these metrics for Nov 2009, Dec 2009, Jan 2010 and Feb 2010.

We will start with March’s data from last year 8,043 unique visits and a conversion rate of 3.13%.

  • Nov 2009 8,789 & 4.85%
  • Dec 2009 14634 & 4.5%
  • Jan 2010 7,604 & 3.67%
  • Feb 2010 6,395 & 3.52%

For this purpose, with holiday data so much higher we will exclude Nov & Dec, unless we have 2008 numbers… Which we do. Nov 2008 7,419 & 3.18%, Dec 2008 8,861 & 4.00%, Jan 2009 6,146 & 2.99% and Feb 2009 5,742 & 3.22%.

Here is the math:

Period Unique Visits Conv %
Nov. 2008 7419 3.18%
Dec. 2008 8861 4.00%
Jan. 2009 6146 2.99%
Feb. 2009 5742 3.22%
Mar. 2009 8043 3.13%
Nov. 2009 8789 4.85%
Dec. 2009 14634 4.50%
Jan. 2010 7604 3.67%
Feb. 2010 6395 3.52%
YOY Growth
Nov. 1370 1.67%
Dec. 5773 0.50%
Jan. 1458 0.68%
Feb. 653 0.30%
Trend Weight
Nov. 18.49% 1.67% 12.50%
Dec. 65.15% 0.50% 12.50%
Jan. 23.72% 0.68% 25.00%
Feb. 11.37% 0.30% 50.00%
Current Trend 22.07% 0.53% Up
Forecast
Last Year March 8043 3.13%
This Year March 9818 3.66%
Daily Visits 318

The math is easier than it looks….

Step 1: YOY growth, which is simply current year minus previous year.

Step 2: Trend. Like I said we will weight this for the most current monthly data. So 100% being the whole, we will use 12.5% from Nov & Dec, 25% from Jan and the remaining 50% from most current Feb. Something like this:

  • 1 part : Nov. 18.49% plus Dec. 65.15% = 83.64 divided by 2 = 41.82%
  • 1 part: Jan. = 23.72%
  • 1 part: Feb. =11.37%
  • 1 part: Feb. =11.37%

= The whole (88.28) divided by 4 = (22.07%) Current Trend

Last year March (8043) apply trend 22.07% = (1775 growth) This year March forecast (9818) unique visits… Into 318 average daily visits.

Check our math:

Last year average daily visits March = 260

This year forecast = 318

% of predicted growth = 22.3%

**Note that rounding changes these just a hair, but not to worry this should be pretty reliable data.

So this “math” can be applied to the entire period as a whole, or each month individually computed. The point here is to have an idea of what to expect, AND and basis to measure the effectiveness of your marketing this spring. For example if you did nothing last spring, and you know (above) what to expect if you do nothing this spring… Then you have a pretty good benchmark to measure the effectiveness of a marketing campaign this spring.

admin E-Commerce Marketing, Small Business

How NOT to Lose Your Merchant or Gateway Account

February 16th, 2010
Merchant Processing Survival Tips 2010

Merchant Processing Survival Tips 2010

If you haven’t read about the new “Brand Damaging” issues and you accept credit cards on your website… You need to. The potential impact on your business is too large to ignore.

Now that you have hopefully informed yourself, let’s concentrate on keeping you out of trouble and getting canceled.

The new rules may seem a bit daunting, but they are really pretty simple…. If it’s trickery, you cannot do it anymore. You may be sitting there thinking, “I have been running this “Free Money” website for 10 years…. This doesn’t apply to me. You are most certainly wrong. These are new rules, new implementations and new punishments for violations.

The cost for violating one of these rules and getting caught (and you will) is at it’s best cancellation of your merchant account or gateway account…. At it’s worst, very large fines and cancellation. Heed this warning, even if you haven’t received any communication from your Merchant services providers.

Merchant Processing Survival Tips 2010

Online marketing campaigns that employ any “Free-Trial”, “Deferred Billing” and/or “Shipping Only” are considered trial offers and are subject to the new rules. Consumers must receive a tangible good or contracted service in exchange for the credit card charge(s). Incentive type discount offers are acceptable ONLY when the cardholder is receiving goods or services in exchange for payment. Having said this, note for example that e-Online will no longer support

accounts engaging in hidden or delayed charges and ‘free’ offers that are not truly free.

  1. Avoid using  “free” or “risk free” language on your website and in marketing campaigns (including PPC) .. Unless it is 100% really free.
  2. If you use the “Pay Shipping & Handling Only” technique, then these charges must be fair, reasonable and fully disclosed. So if you have been slipping by on the $5 shipping and $20 handling fee, you must stop. Also note that inflating your actual shipping has additional implications as well… Did you know that most states expect you to pay sales tax on overcharged shipping fees?
  3. Trial offers need to be no less than 10 days and the trial period should not begin until product is shipped to the consumer or the service has begun. You are not permitted to offer trails with exemptions, filtering or special rules for age, weight, height, geographic location, race etc.
  4. Avoid creating a false sense of urgency because if the matter is not genuinely urgent you are in violation. For example if you have the “10 day only” message running on your website for 3 years now… You are in violation. These periods of offers must be genuine and accurate. e-Online has strictly forbid the use of  applications such as countdown clocks, tickers, or language such as “Offer Expires Today!”, for example already.
  5. By mandate of the FTC, product claims, promises, guarantees and research claims MUST be accurate and proper. This is pretty unlimited and includes testimonials, endorsements and even product reviews. Don’t think for one second that user supplied product reviews are exempt… It is your website right? Not only do you risk loss of merchant services with these issues, but the FTC can fine 11K on top of whatever the credit card companies may choose to fine you for your “Brand Damaging” behavior.
  6. How about the FTC’s new rules for pricing? Prices must be within reasonable “fair market value”. Any negative options must be clearly disclosed, and you cannot bill for any product or service that the shopper/consumer did not knowingly purchase… Including things like upgrades and software updates, for example.
  7. If you have a special offer which includes some shady marketing like exclusions or negative options you are required to have that customer agree to the terms twice before charging them.

The first validation can take place with the initial offer presentation prior to submission of credit card information, and the second during the checkout process. The confirmation order page must also require consumers to acknowledge that they agree to the Terms & Conditions and authorize the merchant to charge the credit card for the disclosed dollar amount. Terms must be displayed adjacent to the “submit”, “confirm” or any other “call to action” button confirming the order. The price must be within 100 pixels of the “submit”, “confirm” or any other “call to action” button.

  • Shipping and Handling should not be billed separate from charges for the product or service.
  • Terms must be in a minimum 12-point “easy to read” font.
  • Avoid visually distracting graphics from the display of terms.
  • Pre-checked boxes must never be used.
  • Consumers should be required to actively and individually select each offer or bonus during the checkout process when there are multiple offers or up sells presented. No offers or up sells should be pre–selected or pre-checked.
  • Consumers should not be able to move forward in the offer or checkout until the box acknowledging the terms is checked.
  • Verbiage must clearly disclose the enrollment into an ongoing membership with no distraction. An example of an acceptable disclosure is: “By clicking “Submit” you acknowledge that you understand you are being enrolled in a 10 day trial for $4.95, and after expiration of the 10 day trial period you will be charged $59 per month until you cancel your service”
  • All products or services purchased when the call-to-action button is clicked should be billed as a single charge unless the order is fulfilled at different times requiring multiple charges.

REFUND POLICIES

Merchants must not make it difficult for consumers to exercise the disclosed cancellation procedures and all cancellation requests must be honored in accordance with the stated terms of the transaction.

  1. Refund policies must be disclosed prior to the sale completion. Establish a clear, concise statement of your refund and credit policy. Your policy should be consistent with the objectives of your business and the products or services sold.
  2. Merchants must not require return of any trial offer product samples in order for the consumer to receive a refund, or cancel their ongoing subscription.
  3. “Full Money Back” or “Full Satisfaction” guarantees are considered false and prohibited unless the offer provides a full refund on all products, including but not limited to Shipping & Handling charges.
  4. Refunds should be for the full amount charged including shipping and handling
  5. All future billing to a customer should be canceled when a refund is issued.

All future billing to a customer should be canceled when a chargeback is received.

RESOURCES:

The FTC has published the regulations along with many resources online for businesses and consumers like yourself to learn and understand the new regulations.  A few helpful links provided by e-online are included below:

Commercial Practices Part 425, Use of Prenotification Negative Option Plans

Prenotification Negative Option Plans

Advertising and Marketing on the Internet

Dot Com Disclosures

Direct Response industry publications have provided articles with some clarification regarding these guidelines:

http://www.responsemagazine.com/resources/legal-resources/legal-review-getting-strict-with-negative-option-marketing-1351

http://www.dmnews.com/get-comfortable-with-new-ftc-regs/article/136023/

So, are you scared?

If you have been utilizing these techniques, then you probably should be. Realize that the allowable fines and penalties for violations of these rules can mean the death of many if not most small businesses. On the lighter side, even receiving the cancellation email from a merchant provider, allowing you a very short 2 weeks to make other arrangements for processing or gateway services is enough to put you in the poor house.

Take heed, learn and understand these practices, and when in doubt contact your merchant providers… speak with someone in underwriting and have them look at your website and marketing materials and provide you the correct way to market your products…. Before the axe falls.

admin E-Commerce Marketing, Small Business, So you want to be a Shop Owner Series

Did You Hack Your Own Website?

January 17th, 2010

Ok, so that’s a funny headline…. But it’s true. We have had several cases recently where a Zen Cart owner or other personnel with access infected their own site with a Trojan.

JS Downloader X Did You Hack Your Own Website?

JS-Downloader-X

In both recent cases, a file called zcv.gif was inserted into the cart’s directories. A quick search on Google Groups reveals that not only Zen Carts were affected, but WordPress, Joomla and more. Although the Zen Carts seemed to hold up and no injection of scripting took place in the 2 I was involved with, apparently Joomla users were not so lucky as they had every single index file to clean up as well!

The issue kept reoccurring after users cleaned their websites up. When cleaning a hacked website we look for back doors which can provide future access to cause damage. In this case, the “back door” providing the access for reinfection resided on the website owners computers.

The infection, caused by a Trojan downloader threat JS-Downloader-X, infected from several different websites. The threat is listed as high, and unfortunately at the time it escaped many common virus software scanners. The virus essentially uses the hosting and/or FTP login info on the user’s computer to make its access. This is highly hard to track down and prevent, as normal hosting firewalls, security rules and even brute force detection are not triggered… You see the access is authorized.

Below is a list of things you can do to keep your own computer and other who access your website clean.

1. Use the following online vulnerability scanner and ensure your software is up-to-date: http://secunia.com/vulnerability_scanning/online/?task=load
2. Download anti-virus and fully scan your PC for malicious files. Here are some free online scanners for Windows, which is typically the most vulnerable to infection. If you have a different OS, there are similar programs that can be located and run on your system to protect it in the same way:
MalwareBytes ( http://www.malwarebytes.org/ ) and
ComboFix ( http://www.bleepingcomputer.com/combofix/how-to-use-combofix ) have been reported to be able to clean a recent strain of malware that resists detection by almost all other anti-virus agents. It is highly suggested that you one or both of them and one of the following:
-http://housecall.trendmicro.com/
-http://www.bitdefender.com/scan8/ie.html
-http://www.kaspersky.com/virusscanner
-http://support.f-secure.com/enu/home/ols.shtml
-http://www.eset.com
3. Update all passwords for any account that you access/own that may not be up to standards. Any passwords that have been compromised will need to be changed as well. Standards for secure passwords are available: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Password_strength#Guidelines_for_strong_passwords
4. Keep your computer secure from malware infecting it. If your computer is compromised, your account can be compromised through your password being used to access it.
- Ensure you use the latest browser version; Ensure that said browser subscribes to Google’s blacklist API (Mozilla Firefox, Google Chrome, Safari)
- Disable javascript
- Use the firefox addon noscript
- Make sure your antivirus has a subscription to new database and version releases. This may cost some amount of money, but is well worth the expense.
- Use http://www.avg.com.au/index.cfm?section=avg&action=onlinescan to test suspicious links you are given in emails or find online.
6. Ensure that all database configurations for your account are using a custom generated user and password combination, and that this information is not stored in plain text if this is feasible. Using your cPanel username and password to access your databases for your site may be convenient, but it introduces an incredible security risk.
7. Audit your account for unnecessary scripts, such as file uploaders. Ensure that if they are necessary that they are password protected, or if that is not feasible that they check the file type before allowing upload, to prevent upload of certain types of files.

Most important, if you see the file zcv.gif in your file structure, know that removing it will not remove the threat and all with access will need to properly scan and clean up their computers.

admin Small Business

Brand Damaging & What it Means to Ecommerce

January 14th, 2010

Brand Damaging

Brand Damaging

First let’s attempt to define what “brand damaging” actually means. It’s really a rather ambiguous, mostly legal term referring to statements, actions, images, content, theft and other actions causing damage or harm to one’s brand. Be that brand an authors name, a business or a service.

Many times this type of issue involves another nasty term, “identity theft”. The connection comes from associating a known brand, such as the case with Jeremy Schoemaker in 2008. This matter was one of the first notable cases I have seen reported. In this case,  the Hydra Network or one of its affiliates made unauthorized use of a picture of ShoeMoney holding a check and the accompanying ad claiming he had made the money using a scam called “Google Money Tree”.

How does this affect shop owners?

Many of you will have already received a letter of intent, or decided changes from your merchant bank if you process credit cards. The changes or proposed changes are quite frankly in answer to Visa Mastercard’s intent to take action in response to increases in consumer disputes related to card not present and direct response products and services.

It’s not really Greek, in a nutshell, if you, your practices, your security or your products and services are a bad risk, Visa Mastercard feels that this damages their brand.

These forthcoming and anticipated payment brand mandates and requirements will change a great many things for some merchants. For example e-online has already adapted the following policy changes:

e-onlinedata cannot accept merchant applications for products and/or services employing “Negative Option” enrollment, in addition to the following practices:

  • Marketing models that employ “Free-Trial”, “Deferred Billing” and/or “Shipping Only”. Customers must be receiving a tangible good or contracted service in exchange for charging of payment cards. Incentivized discount offers are acceptable when the cardholder is receiving something in exchange for payment, however we will be unable to support accounts engaging in hidden or delayed charges and ‘free’ offers that are not truly free.
  • “Cross-Selling” and “Up-selling” business practices. All sales should be directly between the business entities (merchant) processing the transaction and the cardholder, with cardholder authorization for all purchases.
  • Per Payment Brand guidelines, the use of multiple merchant accounts, billing descriptors and merchant processors may be viewed as an attempt to avoid chargeback monitoring programs and is prohibited. Perceived non-compliance has led to termination of processing relationships. e-onlinedata will review the business consideration for opening multiple merchant accounts to ensure compliance with Payment Brand guidelines.
  • Transactions generated from internet traffic and all other lead sources must be managed and monitored for potential fraud using an approved system. Third Party service engagement may be a requirement for account approval.

Of these, the most likely ecommerce merchant concern is the last. The last statement refers to properly managing, monitoring and PCI compliance of your shopping cart, hosting and merchant gateway. These are not recommendations, but rather already required for merchants. When you signed your merchant agreement, you also agreed to maintain the proper PCI/DSS standards and mandates.

Originally, PCI was Greek, however, merchants are learning and much support is available to meet the needs of small businesses whose budget for these matters can be quite small. Your merchant provider, merchant gateway provider or PCI approved scanner can help you to understand and manage the protocols necessary to keep not only yourself, but your shoppers safe. I have a post here to get you started on the road to PCI compliance.

It is clearly worth noting that the FTC (Federal Trade Commission) has already moved on the “Negative Option” marketing technique. Additionally, the FTC recently made changes to the requirements for paid testimonials, blog posts and endorsements. These are also clearly targeted at the web, and I think we can expect to see more of the same with big fines from the FTC in the future.

Not only are these things right and proper in my opinion, but changes to protect consumers on the web are long overdue. I think if you run and honest business in good faith you will not have any issues, frankly, those sapped by the movement to protect Internet consumers are in general those who would strive to deceive and take advantage of consumers…. Giving us all a bad name and damaging our brand as well!

admin E-Commerce Marketing, Small Business, So you want to be a Shop Owner Series