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Ecommerce Spring Forecasting

March 5th, 2010

Are you feeling that “spring is coming” bug? Well, rightfully so, because right now is the time to plan for your spring marketing and tidy up a bit from the winter sales.

Most ecommerce stores have some season trending. This is very unique to both the store and the product line. So a store selling green widgets can be expected to trend sales in a similar manner to another shop selling green widgets… But not exactly, as they are many additional metrics that influence one’s sales.

So you should be planning for your spring and early summer products, marketing and trends now… So that you are prepared for this period in your business. Even especially if traditionally spring is a low volume period for sales.

Here is a checklist of sorts to help you get started for planning any marketing period, including this spring.

Trending: Unless you site is brand new, you should have some sales and traffic data that you can use to trend or predict the data for the upcoming period. I tend to concentrate on sales and traffic. I use both as they can be very unrelated for some websites. There are clearly some periods where even if the traffic is there, conversions are down… So to properly trend our potential for this upcoming period we should use both. You may even have other metrics such as, bounce, average order or similar that are specifically a target for your store.

Gathering the data is the easiest part, as you should be using a proper analytical stat program to record your data. We will use Google Anayltics for our example, as it is very popular.

When gathering your data, we are looking for specific trends within the matching period from previous years to predict, affect and produce a proper marketing plan for the upcoming period. So login to Google Analytics and lets get to work.

So we will pull data for all of March, April, May and June to cover our bases and provide some overlap. You will want to pull at least on year, more if you have them. I would not be concerned with using more than 3 years as things in your business and on the web change very quickly and it’s not likely to be very relevant any longer.

The example store I am using had a 2009 average daily visits of 279 uniques a day. There conversion rate for the year was 3.87%. You can see by the graph that holiday traffic is a crucial part of this store’s success and that spring is rather soft by comparison. You can also see that our spring period it right at or just a bit above average for them.

2009 Traffic

2009 Unique Visits

We can clearly see from this data, that traffic could be improved for this period…. Especially because they have a genuine promotable product line for spring sales. Now let’s have a look at conversions in relationship with this traffic… Do they convert well in this period?

conversions Ecommerce Spring Forecasting

2009 Conversions

We can see that last year, while traffic was average, they converted pretty well the end part of spring. looks very much like March should be our focus area.

Next you will determine your trend. You can use data from previous tears to do this… But if you lack that data no worries, this old restaurant manager has the equation to get you close.

Obviously, any data you do have is clearly relevant… But let’s say you have little or none. To determine your current rate of growth in both of these metrics we will poll the last 4 months. This is a weighted process with the greatest weight on the most recent data.

This applies to any metric. Gather the data for these metrics for Nov 2009, Dec 2009, Jan 2010 and Feb 2010.

We will start with March’s data from last year 8,043 unique visits and a conversion rate of 3.13%.

  • Nov 2009 8,789 & 4.85%
  • Dec 2009 14634 & 4.5%
  • Jan 2010 7,604 & 3.67%
  • Feb 2010 6,395 & 3.52%

For this purpose, with holiday data so much higher we will exclude Nov & Dec, unless we have 2008 numbers… Which we do. Nov 2008 7,419 & 3.18%, Dec 2008 8,861 & 4.00%, Jan 2009 6,146 & 2.99% and Feb 2009 5,742 & 3.22%.

Here is the math:

Period Unique Visits Conv %
Nov. 2008 7419 3.18%
Dec. 2008 8861 4.00%
Jan. 2009 6146 2.99%
Feb. 2009 5742 3.22%
Mar. 2009 8043 3.13%
Nov. 2009 8789 4.85%
Dec. 2009 14634 4.50%
Jan. 2010 7604 3.67%
Feb. 2010 6395 3.52%
YOY Growth
Nov. 1370 1.67%
Dec. 5773 0.50%
Jan. 1458 0.68%
Feb. 653 0.30%
Trend Weight
Nov. 18.49% 1.67% 12.50%
Dec. 65.15% 0.50% 12.50%
Jan. 23.72% 0.68% 25.00%
Feb. 11.37% 0.30% 50.00%
Current Trend 22.07% 0.53% Up
Forecast
Last Year March 8043 3.13%
This Year March 9818 3.66%
Daily Visits 318

The math is easier than it looks….

Step 1: YOY growth, which is simply current year minus previous year.

Step 2: Trend. Like I said we will weight this for the most current monthly data. So 100% being the whole, we will use 12.5% from Nov & Dec, 25% from Jan and the remaining 50% from most current Feb. Something like this:

  • 1 part : Nov. 18.49% plus Dec. 65.15% = 83.64 divided by 2 = 41.82%
  • 1 part: Jan. = 23.72%
  • 1 part: Feb. =11.37%
  • 1 part: Feb. =11.37%

= The whole (88.28) divided by 4 = (22.07%) Current Trend

Last year March (8043) apply trend 22.07% = (1775 growth) This year March forecast (9818) unique visits… Into 318 average daily visits.

Check our math:

Last year average daily visits March = 260

This year forecast = 318

% of predicted growth = 22.3%

**Note that rounding changes these just a hair, but not to worry this should be pretty reliable data.

So this “math” can be applied to the entire period as a whole, or each month individually computed. The point here is to have an idea of what to expect, AND and basis to measure the effectiveness of your marketing this spring. For example if you did nothing last spring, and you know (above) what to expect if you do nothing this spring… Then you have a pretty good benchmark to measure the effectiveness of a marketing campaign this spring.

admin E-Commerce Marketing, Small Business

Ecommerce – Flex Those Marketing Muscles

April 24th, 2009
Ecommerce Marketing

Ecommerce Marketing

Your average citizen probably does not realize the impact certain decisions in the business world has affected them. The primary concern for most is making sure they have enough money to pay the bills.

Gas prices rise, but they don’t logically consider of the higher grocery prices they would soon be paying. They just knew things were tighter now than they have ever been.

Unions demanded more money in contract negotiations, but they didn’t automatically understand how that might affect the sticker price of their next car or airline ticket they just hoped the car would last a little longer or a really great deal would come along.

However, when you work on a new business start up in a brave new world called ecommerce you begin to take notice of these pebbles tossed in the pond as you swim in. Suddenly it is much easier to see the ripples those small pebbles have created and you brace for the aftermath of the wake because there will certainly be a wake.

If you’re going to be in business ecommerce is a wonderful place to start because the overhead is often much less than a traditional brick and mortar small business and you likely have fewer employees and related concerns than a traditional store counterpart.

You will soon discover, however, that your marketing plan needs a ‘flex’ mode. This means very simply, the things you sell online may require certain shifts in marketing depending on regional or national economic indicators…. and the economy as well.

For instance, let’s say …

1. You sell decorative outdoor garden items.
2. Your current marketing plan has you developing content based copy on developing pleasing about gardening and the niche hobby topics
3. The economy is tough and gardens are not a homeowner’s priority

In this scenario there will likely be customers who would be looking for garden items for their home which they have found through your online content. However, what if you ‘flexed’ your marketing ideals and re-pitched the products as a way of improving the value of a home an individual may want to sell? This could have a profound impact on your ability to boost sales and increase your market reach.

You are selling the exact same product, but you recast the product to conform to a real need – selling houses. This need is expressed behind closed doors and at the local coffee shop. It ultimately is translated to the general business climate. There may come a time when you revise your approach once more, but that’s one of the best things about ecommerce, you can recast your sales approach when you need to. You will find that for the web based businesses this recast or re planning is a necessary marketing venue.

Some of the very dismal things that may be happening in the business world around you may present marketing opportunities you just haven’t explored yet.

When the economy deals a blow to your marketing objectives take some time to research if there may be new opportunities in a shifted marketing strategy. Many time adversity can allow ecommerce to flourish in new soil. Think outside of the box…. The only bad marketing idea is the one you didn’t plan or try.

Look for any and every advantage for marketing your product in light of changing circumstances and a softer economic tide. Change doesn’t always have to be a bad thing. The greatest successes in business have very often been spawned of need and change.

Melanie E-Commerce Marketing

Got a Holiday Marketing Plan?

September 18th, 2008

Not only should you be planning for the generally heavier Internet traffic during the winter months… But in the US, the economy has folks tightening their budgets a bit. So today’s question is simple and straightforward…

What are you going to DO, to get your share of the Holiday sales this year?

Certainly, there are always time tested successful marketing techniques that we already know will help us build our sales during these peek periods… But what about some unorthodox and fresh marketing ideas?

Have any?

I do… So I will be adding great marketing ideas here to grow your sales and grasp a larger share of the winter month sales opportunities that exist. Check back, as I will be adding suggestions and other ideas to this brain workout marketing list. One of the things e commerce stores still have trouble bringing to the table is good old fashioned Holiday Cheer… Why is that exactly, its the Holidays, have fun and spread your cheer too!

  1. Any kind of great link / promo bait is going to be very hot… For example, set a press release that Santa himself is at your shop answering your phones. This will get people’s attention and if you have the right product, folks will be happy to spend money in your store… Not to mention all the great links you can grab as well.
  2. Search out and list/advertise with some Holiday gift guides and comparison sites.
  3. Offer gift certificates for customers to refer a friend.
  4. Offer free anything… Free gifts, free shipping, free gift wrapping etc. Free is always good marketing.
  5. Run crazy fun Holiday Pay Per Click Ads… Target some very tight terms and throw up Ads like, Santa dropped the load at our shop! This will get you giggles and get some folks in your door, then grab them with great deals and Holiday offerings.
  6. Submit a Holiday themed coupon to a bunch of FREE coupon database sites.
  7. Offer after purchase 10$ gift certificates for a reduced price (Like 5$).. Many will jump at these and the shrink is very likely to get you out on top anyhow.
  8. Run a contest or give away on your site… Customer # 000XX will receive a $25 gift certificate for their next purchase… Then track the winners and results in a very prominent location for all to see.
  9. Filter the Holiday buzz keywords in to your content… Words like “Holiday”, Gift Ideas”, “Gifts for Men” and other seasonal related terms will be searched… Let them find you this Holiday season.
  10. Get going with Image Search… People will be searching for those same popular gift and Holiday terms in images as well… Or you prefer to name your images like 45grj.jpg? =P
  11. Send a Holiday cheer newsletter and include a coupon for a special deal or product ONLY available to your subscribers.
  12. 9-20-08 Add product bundles to your store, Holiday shoppers are in a hurry and will be more inclined to checkout with a bundle containing everything they need… Like the iPod, case and headphones all in one shot.
  13. 9-20-08 Swap out some website images for Holiday themed, feel good images to get shoppers in the “mood”.
  14. 9-20-08 Run a stocking stuffer giveaway… Buy any 2 products and choose your free stocking stuffer free item from these great products.
  15. 10-06-08 Give a free item to orders over $X.
  16. 10-06-08 Rename your specials category/section to “Holiday Gift Specials”.
  17. 10-06-08 Advertise your ability to ship directly to the gift recipient.

Black Friday and the rush of Holiday sales is sneaking up on us… Get your butts in gear, before its too late.

Melanie E-Commerce Marketing